Predictions: The 2016 Rock Hall Nominees

The Rock and Roll Hall of Fame - Don Henley, inducting Randy Newman in 2013, may have put it best when he called it a “peculiar, perplexing organization.” 

Can't argue with Don on that point; this is one unpredictable enterprise. And this month, the Rock Hall Nomination Committee, which recently underwent some dramatic membership changes, will reportedly meet to come up with a roster of artists for potential induction in 2016. That nominee list is typically announced in October.

Here are E-Rockracy's predictions of the 2016 nominees, based more on likelihood than personal taste, as well as a touch of guesswork based on some early buzz out there:

Chic - That sound you hear? It's Nile Rodgers shaking his head. This would be Chic's 10th nomination (!). But it took 10 nominations to get the legendary Solomon Burke in, so there is a precedent.

Deep Purple - As with Rush, years of hard rock/metal fans protesting their exclusion could earn them another nomination.

Electric Light Orchestra - Eligible for 18 years, and Jeff Lynne could wear Billy Corgan's "ZERO" shirt as that is the number of nominations his widely-respected group has had. That could change this year.

Janet Jackson - New tour, new album, multi-platinum pop legend. That could seal a nomination.

J. Geils Band - Vocalist Peter Wolf is a close-knit associate of the Rock Hall, previously inducting Jackie Wilson and, last year, the Paul Butterfield Blues Band. Plus, there seems to be some current chatter out there around the JGB, eligible since 1995. 

Ben E. King - Already in with the Drifters, but King, who died this year, has 3 previous nominations as a solo artist.

Kraftwerk - 3 previous nominations, including one last year for these electronic music pioneers. If they're nominated yet don't make induction yet again, look to the committee to start jumping ahead to such Kraftwerk descendants as Joy Division/New Order and Depeche Mode in future years. That said, their induction would suitably pave the way for those acts, as well.

The Marvelettes - Two previous nominations in recent years, perhaps they'll give this beloved 60s girl group another shot.

Nine Inch Nails - Fairly shocking they weren't inducted last year, another try seems quite likely.

N.W.A. - There couldn't be more of a mainstream spotlight on them right now with the biopic and the new Dr. Dre album. A slam-dunk for nomination, but will the larger (and older-skewing) voting body cast enough votes to get them inducted? 

Smashing Pumpkins - Newly eligible and extremely likely to make the initial nominee pool.

The Smiths - A surprise nomination last year, but given Morrissey-Marr's undeniable influence on indie and alternative rock, it seems a solid bet they'll get another chance.

The Spinners - A legendary R&B act that never seems to leave the Rock Hall conversation. Two previous nominations.

Yes - A passionate fan base and a formidable body of work, to be certain. As sad as it is to contemplate, too, bassist Chris Squire's passing could nudge them onto the nominee list.

Warren Zevon - Would be a worthy addition to the seemingly annual singer-songwriter slot. Never nominated.

Rock Hall First-Ballot Predictions 2016-2029

As Rock and Roll Hall of Fame first-ballot inductee Tom Petty once sang, "the waiting... is the hardest part." However, like him, some artists won't have to wait at all to be enshrined into that museum on Lake Erie. Here are some predictions on which artists will enter the hall in their very first year of eligibility. (Note, the format is eligibility year/ceremony year; for example, Pearl Jam is eligible in 2016, and if they are voted in, they would be inducted during the actual ceremony in 2017.)  

Just for fun, there is the also the addition of a dream induction speaker for each artist. 

2015/2016 - Prediction? Zero first balloters. Smashing Pumpkins will move into the nominee pool but not quite make the cut. There have been first-ballot inductees the last four years in a row (Guns N' Roses, Public Enemy, Nirvana, Green Day), so it wouldn't be surprising if there are no brand new faces in 2016. This should come as good news to you Deep Purple, N.W.A., and Spinners fans, though.

2016/2017 - Pearl Jam  You want a no-brainer? This is perhaps the easiest first-ballot prediction on the radar. Arriving fully-formed with their staggering, monolithic debut album Ten in 1991, Pearl Jam has never wavered or looked back. They've held an unrelenting grip on that elusive, all-too-rare thing artists like Neil Young and R.E.M. possess: artistic integrity. They've got the anthems, the rabid followers, and they still sell out arenas. And what a story: They outlasted "grunge," battled Ticketmaster, withstood tragedy, and have forged a contemplative yet triumphant identity that is unique, earning fans from Pete Townshend to your little sister. Spin the black circle, and roll out the red carpet. Dream induction speaker: Pete Townshend.

2017/2018 - Beck and Radiohead  O -delay and -K Computer. Any questions? Some pundits also like first-year-eligibles Rage Against the Machine, but despite Rock Hall brass being tight with RATM guitar wizard (and HOF nominating committee member) Tom Morello, his old band will have to wait. On a side note, Green Day performed at the 2012 ceremony and were then inducted in 2015; expect the same for 2015 ceremony performer Beck in 2018. Dream induction speakers: David Byrne (Beck); Roger Waters (Radiohead).

2019/2020 - Oasis and Jeff Buckley There's a temptation to say "Weezer and Elliott Smith" for this class as both are also first-year eligible, but I think the "induce a reunion fever" will once again strike the Rock Hall (remember GNR in 2012?), in hopes the complicated Gallagher brothers will show up and perform. Whatever happens, the instant-classic album (What's the Story) Morning Glory is sufficient to get them in. In the other slot, the angelic-voiced Jeff Buckley is the rock world's James Dean - a blazingly gifted comet of a soul who left us too soon, and tragically. His essential album Grace is a soaring achievement, and contains the best version of Leonard Cohen's "Hallelujah" ever recorded. Dream induction speakers: Ryan Adams (Oasis); Thom Yorke (Jeff Buckley).

2020/2021 - Foo Fighters Does anyone see these guys not going in first ballot? Like them or not, the high-energy Foo Fighters are one of the most popular American rock bands of the past few decades, and Dave Grohl is the art form's biggest cheerleader. Allow Grohl this much: He stepped out from behind the drums, and did one hell of a job reinventing himself post-Nirvana. As far as HOF activities are concerned, he's inducted Rush and performed at the galas, most recently with Joan Jett. Debate the Foos' music if you will; some think they're overrated if competent, while others react like Jack Black doing air guitar when they hear "Everlong." That's rock n' roll for you. Dream induction speakers: Robin Zander and Rick Nielsen of Cheap Trick.

And beyond 2021, briefly:

2021/2022 - Eminem He's not Vanilla Ice. 

2024/2025 - The White Stripes Because it would take 13 more years to induct Jack White solo. He gets in with this class, with Meg. The Rock Hall probably wishes they could put him in tomorrow. 

2028/2029 - Arcade Fire The epitome of a critic's band, they are also an indie-rock juggernaut that could pave the way for a lot of other Pitchfork-approved bands that followed them to start entering the HOF. And like their stateside influencers Talking Heads, they're in first ballot.

2016 Induction Ceremony: Who Goes In?

So now what? 

For the 2015 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame class, set to be inducted in the 2016 induction ceremony in Los Angeles, there seems to be a total lack of "no brainer" first-ballot inductees. The most likely newly eligible act is Smashing Pumpkins, but as we saw with Nine Inch Nails, 90s alt-rock/Lollapalooza participants are no slam dunk. Imagine the howls of outrage (yes, worse than usual) if Hole gets nominated, let alone inducted. Blur is an interesting thought, but not before Oasis (eligible in 2019). Mariah Carey? Not before Ms. Jackson (if you're nasty). Ween would be a nifty dark horse nominee, but it's difficult to see the larger voting body checking a box for them. A Tribe Called Quest? Not before other rap/hip-hop artists that should go first.

However, a lack of clarity could be a positive thing for the Hall; this could build toward a moderately face-saving "make-up" year, that is, if the public image-battered Rock Hall wants to reclaim some hearts and minds after the rather controversial, premature induction of Green Day in 2015. It would also be exceptionally cool if the Rock Hall could find a way to honor a local act or two when the induction ceremony takes place in that artist's city; the 2015 Cleveland ceremony would have been a perfect opportunity to induct such deserving Ohio-spawned acts as Nine Inch Nails and Devo. But I digress. Since eight artists were just inducted in Cleveland, here are eight non-first-balloters that the Hall of Fame should seriously consider inducting at Los Angeles' ceremony in 2016:

Deep Purple - 22 years eligible now, nominated twice. Jann Wenner claims all the "no brainers" have been inducted, but the hard rock community would beg to differ. Deep Purple still tours (sadly minus deceased keyboardist Jon Lord) and would deliver a high-voltage performance, with or without famously estranged founding guitarist Ritchie Blackmore (Steve Morse has filled the guitar slot for decades). Fan favorite Rush was inducted last time the ceremony was in Los Angeles; putting Deep Purple in would be a nice parallel and would tie up one of the Hall's major loose ends.

Yes - Before you say "No!", consider the fact that not only are their prog-rock brethren Genesis in, but Genesis' Peter Gabriel is in solo. 21 years eligible, and only one nomination, so the Long Distance Runaround should end now, especially now that Rush is in. Unfortunately, there have been dozens of Yes members through the years, so the speeches will be longer than...well, a prog-rock song. Or the E Street Band speeches.

N.W.A. - Eligible for 3 years now, and with the ceremony in L.A., it would be the perfect time. Much-publicized biopic in theaters this year, and at this point Dr. Dre could be inducted by himself (and should be inducted for his production work alone, eventually). One could also make an eventual induction case for Ice Cube and his solo work, but, really, let's go back to where it started: Straight Outta Compton and right into the Rock Hall.

Warren Zevon - 21 years eligible now, and never once nominated, the late, Los Angeles-based bard of cynical, debauched songcraft should finally get his due and fill the HOF's annual singer-songwriter slot. David Letterman is currently vouching for him, and for god's sake, Bob Dylan has covered this guy's songs in concert. Another dead inductee, it's true, but imagine what former Zevon collaborator Bruce Springsteen or even artistic descendant Father John Misty could do with one of his songs during the performance. Zevon's catalog is a rich, highly rewarding one, and much more than simply "Werewolves of London."

Janet Jackson - 8 years eligible now, never nominated. Rock fans will predictably hate this choice, but each induction class is diverse, and Janet's superstar prestige and influence are undeniable. If Madonna and Donna Summer are both in, then Janet certainly deserves induction as well. 

Pat Benatar - Technically eligible since 2004, but somehow never really part of the Rock Hall conversation, Benatar has been a hard-rocking, fiery fixture of FM radio, MTV and the touring circuit since 1979. She's more than paid her dues, and if the Rock Hall wants to start honoring more women, there are few finer examples than her. Her "shimmy the pimp away" scene in the "Love is a Battlefield" video is reason enough to hand her the trophy. Oh, and legendary songs like  "Heartbreaker," "Hit Me With Your Best Shot," "Fire and Ice," and, as seen during MTV's very first hour of broadcasting, "You Better Run." 

Black Flag - Like HOF member Freddie King (stay with me), or 2015 entrant The Five Royales, these brutally uncompromising Southern California punk pioneers could be inducted under the "Early Influence" category. Rock Hall of Famer Kurt Cobain worshipped these guys and their DIY ethic, and their in-your-face influence is all over the place, with disciples as diverse as Bad Brains, Sonic Youth, Melvins, and Faith No More, among countless others. After Green Day's induction, putting Black Flag in would lend the Hall some needed punk credibility. Bonus: They're also from Los Angeles.

Rick Rubin - Deserves induction in the "Non-Performer" slot often given to producers. Production credits range from Johnny Cash to Slayer to the Red Hot Chili Peppers. Plus, he co-founded hip-hop label Def Jam Records in the early 80s with Russell Simmons and is more or less the reason we know the names Beastie Boys and LL Cool J, among many others.